The wisdom of crowds

You might have noticed or even entered my contest earlier this week to guess the election’s outcome. I tabulated the results of everyone’s guesses and found we did an OK job of predicting the election.

Here’s how the 18 entries totaled up. I put the winners of each vote in bold.

U.S. House: Berg, 6; Pomeroy, 12.

U.S. Senate: Hoeven, 17; Potter, 1.

Public Service Commission: Crabtree, 3; Cramer, 15.

N.D. Measure 1: Yes, 10; No, 8.

N.D. Measure 2: Yes, 2; No, 16.

Stutsman County Sheriff: Kaiser, 15; Orr, 3.

County Measure 2: Yes, 3; No, 15.

County Measure 3: Yes, 1; No, 17.

As you can see, we got all but one right. Of the eight entres submitted, nine missed one race, six people missed two races, two people missed three races and one person missed four races. We’re far from perfect, but we still did pretty good as a group.

We’re definitely going to have to do one of these contests next time, and I’ll do tabulations earlier to see if we can predict the election as a group before the polls even open. If nothing else, it means more chances for ya’ll to win prizes.

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